The Education Debate

Support for local school districts is New York’s largest single spending program, accounting for more than one-quarter of State spending. After fast spending growth over the last three years, the fiscal year 2025 executive budget aims to curb school aid spending growth. The legislative budget proposals would roll back the executive budget’s proposed cuts to school aid and provide additional support for public higher education. This funding would preserve the current scope of New York’s education system, rather than representing transformative new investments.

This Year’s Housing Debate

Housing has again become a key area of negotiations in the current budget cycle. This year’s executive budget laid out a far narrower plan to address New York’s housing affordability crisis than last year’s budget proposal. Meanwhile, the Senate brought forward a new set of housing policy recommendations in its one-house budget proposal, attempting to comprehensively address the housing supply and affordability issues that currently plague the state. But what are these proposals — and are they enough to address New York’s housing crisis?

The Medicaid MCO Tax Strategy

The legislative one-house budgets come out firmly for higher Medicaid spending, restoring most of the governor’s cuts and offering significant rate increases. But how will they pay for it? The Senate and Assembly budget memos propose to raise $4 billion a year through an obscure mechanism: A tax on Medicaid managed care plans, the private insurance companies which administer most of the state’s Medicaid program.

Fiscal Year 2025 Revenue Likely to Exceed State Projections by At Least $4 Billion

Reasonable assumptions about state revenue growth show additional spending power and quell concerns about future budget gaps By Emily Eisner, Ph.D., Economist and Andrew Perry, Senior Policy Analyst March 15, 2024 View PDF of Report Toplines: FPI’s model of State revenue growth projects FY25 revenue will likely exceed current forecasts by at least $4 billion. The DOB’s assumed growth rates for State revenue are very low by historical standards and are out of sync with [...]

What to Look for in the One House Budgets

The New York State Senate and Assembly will soon release their proposals for the fiscal year 2025 budget. Following last week’s revenue consensus, the legislature will be able to propose $1.3 billion more in spending than the executive budget. This additional revenue will allow the legislature to restore many of the budget cuts proposed by the executive budget, especially to school aid and home care. The legislature can, however, go beyond restoring the proposed cuts and put forward deeper investments in public services that address New York’s affordability crisis. These investments will require raising additional revenue.

Consensus Economic and Revenue Forecast: Finding Quarters in the Couch Cushions

By Emily Eisner, PhD, Economist March 4, 2024 View PDF of Report Annualized revenue adjustments average $1.01 billion over past seven budget cyclesIn the New York State budget process, revenue projections are frequently underestimated. The Division of Budget’s pattern of under-estimation is particularly evident in the State’s Economic and Revenue Consensus Report (henceforth referred to as the “Report”). The report released Friday, March 1, 2024, adds an additional $1.35 billion in revenue to the total projected revenue for [...]

FPI: Modest Budget Lacks Deep Investments Needed to Reverse Affordability Crisis & Stem Population Loss

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: January 16, 2024 Media Contact: [email protected] June Cash Receipts Continue to Stabilize Following April Volatility "Given recent inflation and economic growth, state spending is shrinking slightly relative to the size of the overall state economy" ALBANY, NY | In response to the New York State Executive Budget for Fiscal Year 2025, Fiscal Policy Institute Director Nathan Gusdorf released the following statement: “After months of overly pessimistic revenue projections, the Executive Budget [...]

2024-01-16T13:20:50-05:00January 16th, 2024|FPI in the News, Press Releases, State Budget|

New: Expiring Tax Rates to Drive Down Expected Fiscal Year 2028 Revenue

By Andrew Perry, Senior Policy Analyst January 2024 Approximately $2.4 Billion of FY28 budget gap will be due to the Personal Income Tax and Corporate Franchise Tax surcharge expirations. In the fiscal year 2022 budget, New York enacted temporary increases to the personal income tax (PIT) and corporate franchise tax (CFT) rates. PIT rates were raised for tax filers with more than $1 million in annual income, and new brackets were created for filers with incomes over $5 million [...]

2024-01-16T08:22:12-05:00January 16th, 2024|Fact Sheets, Featured on Home, Must Read, State Budget|

FPI on State of the State: NY’s Long-term Economic Competitiveness Depends on Deepening Investments that Sustain Workforce

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: January 9, 2024 Media Contact: [email protected] June Cash Receipts Continue to Stabilize Following April Volatility New York’s current fiscal indicators are stable & show State could significantly increase public investment Current $4.3 billion FY25 budget gap falls within routine range that resolve without major policy intervention ALBANY, NY | In response to Governor Hochul's State of the State, Fiscal Policy Institute Director Nathan Gusdorf released the following [...]

2024-01-09T14:20:27-05:00January 9th, 2024|Press Releases, State Budget|

Update: FY25 State Budget Gap Reflects Stable Fiscal Condition, Not Crisis

January 9, 2024 Toplines The November financial plan made significant revisions to the FY25 budget gap — shrinking the gap from $9.1 billion to $4.3 billion, resulting in more routine gaps. The current FY25 budget gap of $4.3 billion is a moderate, not extreme, budget gap. Moderate outyear budget gaps are generally the result of conservative revenue estimates intended to ensure fiscal stability. Conservative budget forecasting is a sound fiscal practice that protects against economic downturns — not a [...]

2024-01-09T12:04:35-05:00January 9th, 2024|Blog, Fact Sheets, State Budget|

High Earners Move Out Of New York Less Often Than Working & Middle Class And Do Not Move In Response To Tax Hikes

A groundbreaking new report from the Fiscal Policy Institute, “Who Is Leaving New York State? Income Trends” reveals for the first time that the richest New Yorkers are far less likely to move out of New York than working and middle-class New Yorkers in normal, non-Covid years. While this pattern temporarily changed during Covid, when all households earning over $170,000 significantly increased their likelihood of moving out of state, migration trends reverted to normal in 2022.

October Cash Receipts Remain Stable More Than Halfway Through Fiscal Year

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: November 16, 2023 Media Contact: [email protected] June Cash Receipts Continue to Stabilize Following April Volatility October receipts 5.6% above latest projections and 7.5% above October 2022 receipts ALBANY, NY | November 16, 2023 — The State Comptroller released its October Cash Report today, showing that October receipts came in over projections and over October 2022 receipts. October 2023 receipts: $5.85 billion October 2023 projections: Enacted: $5.43 billion Mid-year: $5.54 billion October [...]

State Fiscal Outlook Improves in Mid-Year Update to Financial Plan

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: October 31, 2023 Media Contact: [email protected] June Cash Receipts Continue to Stabilize Following April Volatility As FPI projected earlier this month, Financial Plan update reduces projected FY 2025 budget gap by over 50 percent If current revenue trends continue, next fiscal year's projected budget gap would further narrow ALBANY, NY | October 31, 2023 — Following the release of the Mid-Year Update to the Fiscal Year 2024 Financial Plan this week, [...]

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