The DOB’s assumed growth rates for State revenue are very low by historical standards and are out of sync with most forecasts of U.S. economic growth over coming years. FPI expects State revenue growth in FY25 will likely exceed current forecasts by at least $4 billion.
The New York State Senate and Assembly will soon release their proposals for the fiscal year 2025 budget. Following last week’s revenue consensus, the legislature will be able to propose $1.3 billion more in spending than the executive budget. This additional revenue will allow the legislature to restore many of the budget cuts proposed by the executive budget, especially to school aid and home care. The legislature can, however, go beyond restoring the proposed cuts and put forward deeper investments in public services that address New York’s affordability crisis. These investments will require raising additional revenue.
Over the past five budget cycles, the upward revisions to revenue established at the Economic and Revenue Consensus meeting has ranged from 0.6 percent to 1.9 percent of annual state operating funds. While these numbers may seem small in magnitude, the dollar amounts are significant when compared to current cost saving measures proposed in the fiscal year 2025 executive budget. Annualized revenue adjustments average $972 million over the past 6 budget cycles (excluding 2020) compared to a proposed $454 million in school aid cuts and $600 million in cuts to the homecare program CDPAP in this year’s executive budget.
December 11, 2023 Submitted to the New York City Council Committee on Finance Good morning — I am Andrew Perry, Senior Policy Analyst at the Fiscal Policy Institute, a nonpartisan research organization committed to improving public policy to better the economic and social conditions of all New Yorkers. Overview: New York City faces real fiscal strain in the current fiscal year and next year. However, projected gaps are the result of an unexpected and temporary fiscal shock – the [...]
New York’s fiscal year 2024 Enacted Budget Financial Plan, released June 2023, projected budget shortfalls for fiscal years 2025 through 2027. While future budget gaps are a perennial feature of New York’s budget forecasts, the most recent projected gaps exceed those generally projected in times of greater economic stability, aligning instead with gaps projected during economic downturns. These projections must be interpreted, however, in light of an improving economic outlook as well as the inherent uncertainty of fiscal forecasting.
Read the full report here: Economy Shows Improvement, but Employment Needs Time to Recover Several measures show signs of gradual improvement for New York residents as the state emerges from the covid-19 recession. One such indicator is the steep decline of new unemployment insurance claims, which had recently peaked in winter this year. Another such positive indicator is the continued gradual decrease in the statewide unemployment (U-3) rate, which peaked at 16.2 in April of 2020 as a result of pandemic-induced layoffs and business closures. The [...]
New York State relies on fine, fee, and surcharge revenue to fund government operations- including the functions of the courts and state agencies providing criminal justice, public safety, and victim services. This funding is generated via a complex set of state statutes, including penal, vehicle and traffic, environmental conservation, judiciary, and finance laws and is spent through the General Fund and a bevy of State Special Revenue Funds. No one state government entity or agency is charged with comprehensively reporting on the imposition, collection, and [...]
Read the full report here: State and Local Employment in New York, Cut in the Pandemic, Has Been Down for a Decade State and local government employment is vital to our economy and our quality of life. State and local governments—and their employees—exist because New Yorkers have decided over generations that we need people who are dedicated and trained to teach our children, clean our streets, protect our communities, maintain our highways and bridges, and perform hundreds of other jobs. The number of public employees [...]
Download the full report: "Domestic Workers Are Essential Workers: By the Numbers in New York" Throughout the coronavirus crisis domestic workers have been placed under a double pressure. Already underpaid, many have lost their jobs, or lost hours on the job, putting them under added financial stress. Even when on the job, however, domestic workers find themselves under added physical and psychological stress, acting as essential workers during a pandemic at some risk to their own health as they protect the health of others. Domestic [...]
The New York State Assembly and Senate both support creating a fund to provide unemployment insurance to workers who are excluded from the unemployment insurance system, primarily undocumented immigrants and people leaving incarceration during the Covid-19 pandemic. Both houses included $2.1 billion in their one-house budgets this week, the starting points for negotiating the final state budget. This is an impressive commitment to a critical priority. However, matching the minimum level of benefits that other unemployed New Yorkers receive and extending the aid through the [...]
Read the full report: The American Rescue Plan Act of 2021: New York’s Share of the Coronavirus Fiscal Recovery Fund The American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 includes $350 billion in aid for states, territories, and tribal governments for the purpose of alleviating the fiscal stress caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Of the $350 billion, $195.3 billion is allocated for payments to states, $130.2 billion for city and county governments, $20 billion for tribal governments, and $4.5 billion for territories. These coronavirus fiscal recovery funds [...]
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: February 10, 2021 Media Contact: communications@fiscalpolicy.org, 518-786-3156 ***VIDEO link below*** New York's Pandemic State Budget: Recovering and Reimagining Fiscal Policy Institute's Recommendations for the FY 2022 State Budget Read the report: "Economic and Fiscal Outlook 2022: New York Recovering and Reimagining" Watch the video: Fiscal Policy Institute's Annual State Budget Presentation 2021 (Albany, NY) Today the Fiscal Policy Institute (FPI) released a 30-minute video highlighting its report "New York State's Pandemic Budget: Recovering and Reimagining." FPI urges a bold vision in crafting the FY [...]
Our state budget helps determine the future for every New Yorker. This year the stakes are exceptionally high as the pandemic continues to imperil our health and financial well-being. Will the choices we make crafting our state budget reduce inequality, or will the gap continue to widen? FPI took a look at the proposed New York State Executive Budget and offered actions to create a more just New York for all. Watch our 30-minute video overview and read the report "Economic and Fiscal Outlook 2022: New York Recovering and Reimagining" to learn more. [...]
Economic Recovery Depends on Our Ability to Contribute to the Economy Read the report: “The Rising Burden of Education Debt on Older New Yorkers” December 3, 2020 (Albany, NY) The burden of education debt is not limited to students, it includes their parents and grandparents. Currently, the fastest-growing age-segment of the student loan market is age 60 and older. With New York looking for a speedy economic recovery, solving the education debt crisis means a healthier and more productive state. "Higher education has been portrayed as the key to unlock the door to opportunity [...]
November 2020 Declining revenues threaten New York State’s Local Governments, starting with steep declines in sales tax revenue collections. This revenue stream, which annually totals just over $16 billion for New York State’s counties, cities, towns, villages, and school districts, is expected to shrink precipitously in 2020 and into 2021, exceeding the six percent decline realized during The Great Recession.[i] At the same time, the state’s property tax cap limits local governments’ ability to bolster local revenues. Moreover, Congress’s continued decision not to pass a [...]