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Recent revisions to economic forecasts have significantly lowered expectations of a recession. This has positive implications for the State’s fiscal outlook, as improved economic performance should translate into higher tax receipts.

The New York State Comptroller's June cash basis report shows that tax receipts for the month of June have stabilized after a shortfall in April. The stable June receipts confirm that New York’s tax base and economy remain strong, and that shortfalls in April reflected weaker-than-expected capital gains in tax year 2022 rather than an imminent downturn.

New outyear budget gaps in the fiscal year 2024 Enacted Budget Financial Plan reflect heightened pessimism about the state’s economic trajectory by the State’s Division of Budget (DOB). While all economic projections are highly uncertain, the State is well-equipped to weather economic turbulence if these projections do materialize.

Following the release of the State Comptroller's May Cash Report yesterday, Fiscal Policy Institute Executive Director Nathan Gusdorf today released the following statements: "The New York State Comptroller's May cash basis report shows that total tax receipts for fiscal year 2024 to date are 3.4 percent over the projections in the Enacted Budget financial plan, with Personal Income Tax receipts to date exceeding such projections by 5.5 percent."

The Fiscal Policy Institute today released a new report, "Low Expectations: Understanding the NYC Budget Gap." Through an analysis of the past ten years of New York City outyear budget gaps, the report illustrates how the City uses conservative budget forecasting to protect against economic downturns, and outlines why lawmakers should not misinterpret outyear budget gaps as large impending deficits.

Budget relies on temporary tax rates for corporations and highest earners — state's long-term fiscal stability would be better served by making tax rates permanent. Failure to address high cost of living will continue to drive working & middle-class New Yorkers out of state — and undermine statewide economic growth.

As the legislature currently contemplates a Payroll Mobility Tax (PMT) increase from 0.34 percent to 0.5 percent to fund the MTA, the Fiscal Policy Institute today released a new report, Who Should Pay the Payroll Mobility Tax? The Case Against Excluding Suburban Counties.

With New York State’s fiscal year 2024 budget due April 1, 2024, the Governor and Legislature are nearing the end of negotiations on key policy priorities and the scale of new investments in public services. This brief provides an overview of FPI’s recommendations on major fiscal policy areas at issue in budget negotiations.

New York State has been reported to be one of the states most at risk of incurring a shortage of healthcare workers over the next decade. With a quickly growing population of adults over the age of 65 (“older adults”) and a movement towards “aging in place,” the demand for home care workers will rise dramatically over the next decade.