By Emily Eisner, PhD, Economist January 11, 2024 View Full Economic Update Overview New York State is home to one of the largest, most thriving economies in the world; as of 2022, New York’s gross domestic product was over $2 trillion, rivaling the entire economy of Canada and larger than the economies of Australia and South Korea. Despite New York’s aggregate economic strength, New York faces real economic challenges, including a decrease in total employment, climbing poverty rates, and [...]
January 9, 2024 Toplines The November financial plan made significant revisions to the FY25 budget gap — shrinking the gap from $9.1 billion to $4.3 billion, resulting in more routine gaps. The current FY25 budget gap of $4.3 billion is a moderate, not extreme, budget gap. Moderate outyear budget gaps are generally the result of conservative revenue estimates intended to ensure fiscal stability. Conservative budget forecasting is a sound fiscal practice that protects against economic downturns — not a [...]
New York State has generated significant budget surpluses in recent years as its economy recovered more quickly than expected from the Covid pandemic. Like most other U.S. states, New York saved a considerable portion of these surpluses in its fiscal reserve funds, building a buffer against fiscal stress during future economic downturns. With the Division of the Budget projecting an economic slowdown and depressed revenue in the years ahead, the appropriate use of the State’s fiscal reserves is now a subject of debate. This post will provide an overview on why fiscal reserves exist, and how they can be used to smooth out fluctuations in the economic cycle and maintain stable public services.
New York’s fiscal year 2024 Enacted Budget Financial Plan, released June 2023, projected budget shortfalls for fiscal years 2025 through 2027. While future budget gaps are a perennial feature of New York’s budget forecasts, the most recent projected gaps exceed those generally projected in times of greater economic stability, aligning instead with gaps projected during economic downturns. These projections must be interpreted, however, in light of an improving economic outlook as well as the inherent uncertainty of fiscal forecasting.
Recent revisions to economic forecasts have significantly lowered expectations of a recession. This has positive implications for the State’s fiscal outlook, as improved economic performance should translate into higher tax receipts.
Following the release of the State Comptroller's May Cash Report yesterday, Fiscal Policy Institute Executive Director Nathan Gusdorf today released the following statements: "The New York State Comptroller's May cash basis report shows that total tax receipts for fiscal year 2024 to date are 3.4 percent over the projections in the Enacted Budget financial plan, with Personal Income Tax receipts to date exceeding such projections by 5.5 percent."
FPI's Chief Economist, Jonas Shaende, was invited to testify before the New York State Senate Standing Committee on Codes and the New York State Senate Standing Committee on Crime Victims, Crime, and Corrections. Dr. Shaende spoke in support of the proposed S.3979C (Salazar)/A.2348B (Niou), the End Predatory Court Fees Act. Testimony: Full Text
October 7, 2021 (updated from October 4). The groundbreaking Excluded Worker Fund, which gives aid to people who are excluded from unemployment insurance benefits, has crossed the $1 billion mark, and stands at $1,148,078,400 as of October 4. That’s a huge benefit to workers - nearly all of them undocumented - in our state, and is helping people and local economies in all regions. Equally impressive: 99 percent of those who have been approved get $15,600, the higher of two benefit levels. This is designed to [...]
October 4, 2021. New York State’s historic Excluded Worker Fund has been helping undocumented immigrants and others who were left out of unemployment compensation during the pandemic. According to data provided by the New York State Department of Labor last week, the fund - as predicted - is having an important positive impact on all regions of the state. The most important benefit of the Excluded Worker Fund is helping workers and their families, but the infusion of money into the community helps local economies [...]
Sept. 3, 2021. The first data is out: $250 million has already been issued to immigrants who lost work during the pandemic but were excluded from federal aid, and another $600 million is “undergoing final verification.” After just the first month, 50,000 people have already been found eligible, funds have been dispersed to over 10,000, and another 40,000 are in the final stages of the verification process. Equally impressive: 99 percent of those who have received the funds are approved for $15,600, the higher of [...]
More than 400,000 people are poised to lose unemployment benefits this weekend as eight states withdraw early from pandemic-era programs. While $300 a week federal supplements to state benefits are not ending until September, eight states (Alabama, Idaho, Indiana, Nebraska, New Hampshire, North Dakota, West Virginia and Wyoming) join seventeen others who have already cut this benefit or plan to do so soon, affecting about four million recipients altogether. Supporters of these cutoffs argue that the supplements are keeping workers from returning to the workforce, [...]
Two national groups put a spotlight on FPI's work with the Fund Excluded Worker Coalition that resulted in $2.1 billion toward allowing undocumented immigrants to get something like what others in New York got in unemployment benefits and stimulus payments. This was a historic victory that the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities and the Economic Policy Institute are encouraging other states to follow! CBPP: Whitney Tucker, Deputy Director of Research at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, pointed to the fund as a prime [...]
Shamier Settle, Policy Analyst with the Fiscal Policy Institute, wrote this article in the Gotham Gazette about the census count and what the numbers mean for New York. FPI started its census work in 2018 with this report, which estimates of how much funding community based organizations would need to conduct outreach for the census count in 2020. That same year FPI also began highlighting the importance of including investments in the census in the state budget. Through their participation on the steering committee of New York Counts 2020, [...]
The director of FPI's Immigration Research Initiative, David Dyssegaard Kallick, was invited to testify before the Congressional Small Business Committee about the role of immigrant businesses in the economic recovery after Covid. Kallick talked about two recovery scenarios: A Main Street-centered rebuilding that picks up on some innovations from the Covid period such as outdoor restaurants, expanded pedestrian areas, and bike paths that have transformed many downtowns and urban centers in very positive ways. This scenario would entail Main Streets as vibrant places where people [...]
Something different has happened during the COVID recession than is typical for other recessions: there has been noticeably more job loss among women than among men. Dr. C Nicole Mason, President of the Institute for Women’s Policy Research, coined the term “she-cession” to describe this gendered pattern of job loss that is the converse of what in 2008-09 was sometimes called a “mancession.” Women of color, as Mason notes, have been even more starkly impacted by job loss, a double impact since they started in [...]