FPI Briefing on State Tax Policy after the OBBBA
FPI Director Nathan Gusdorf presented a briefing on July 17 about how state tax policy can respond to the federal funding cuts in the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act".
Troubling trends in New York’s small group market
Read Full Report By Bailey Hu, Health Policy Analyst, & Michael Kinnucan, Director of Health Policy Prior to the passage of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) in 2010, small business employers in New York and other states often had difficulty buying affordable health insurance, especially if their employees were in poor health. The ACA helped provide better options for workers and their families by regulating offerings in the "small group" health insurance market, which serves businesses with up to 100 employees. However, recent administrative data shows alarming trends: not only is New York's small group [...]
FPI Briefing on the Federal Budget Reconciliation Bill
The OBBBA spending cuts are concentrated in Medicaid and food stamps (SNAP), with devastating effects for New Yorkers. The bill will cut federal funding to the New York State budget by approximately $10 billion annually and kick 1.5 million New Yorkers off their health insurance, more than doubling the statewide uninsured population. On top of the direct fiscal costs to New York State, the OBBBA will cut an additional $13 billion in funding to New York’s healthcare system.
FPI Research on Tax Migration cited on NBC, CNN, MSNBC
Zohran Mamdani’s recent victory in the New York City Democratic primary election has brought FPI’s past research on millionaire tax flight into the national spotlight.
One Big Beautiful Fiscal Crisis
Yesterday, in a 51-49 vote, Senate Republicans passed the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” (OBBBA), which, if passed by the House this week, will increase the national debt by approximately $4 trillion while leaving 11 million more Americans uninsured by 2035. The bill is significantly more draconian in its Medicaid cuts than the version passed by the House in May, cutting the program by $1 trillion over 10 years, rather than the $800 billion proposed in the House bill.
New York’s Individual Market is Headed for Disaster under the OBBBA
The OBBBA could threaten one of the signature accomplishments of the ACA: Creating a viable individual insurance market in which middle-class people can purchase high-quality insurance at a reasonable price.
New York Employment Impacts from Medicaid Cuts
A reduction of $10 billion in federal Medicaid funding would result in the direct loss of over 78,000 jobs in healthcare across the state and over 136,000 additional jobs lost through economic spillovers.
The House Medicaid Proposal Would be a Disaster for New York
In February, Congressional Republicans – including all seven New York representatives – voted for a budget reconciliation package requiring $880 billion in cuts to Medicaid over the next ten years. The reconciliation package set an overall target for spending reductions, but didn’t announce what specifically would be cut from the program. This week, House leadership finally revealed which program areas will be targeted.
Federal Policy Briefings
Thursday Briefing, April 17 https://youtu.be/AOGhN5R9myw
Does New York State Have Universal Pre-K?
By the State’s account, it currently provides enough UPK funding to provide a UPK seat to every four-year-old in the State. Nevertheless, the program remains far short of universal, with incomplete coverage of four-year-olds outside of the state’s major cities and limited provision for three-year-olds across the state.
How Fast is New York’s Home Care Program Growing?
Much recent reporting has focused on the growth of CDPAP in isolation, but this perspective exaggerates home care growth by ignoring the role of agency-model home care, which accounts for 44 percent of all Medicaid-funded home care in New York.
The Federal Housing Policy Landscape
State housing policy relies heavily on two federal programs that support housing affordability: the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit and Housing Choice Vouchers (also known as “Section 8” vouchers). These two programs underpin most affordable housing construction in the US and play an important role in the provision of affordable housing in New York State.
Making Sense of New York’s Medicaid Long-Term Care Spending
New York spends more on Medicaid long-term care than most states, but this higher spending is driven primarily by higher enrollment, particularly among seniors, rather than by higher per-enrollee spending. This high enrollment reflects policymakers’ decision to make long-term care, particularly home care, relatively accessible for working- and middle-class seniors.
Understanding Childcare Policy in New York
Childcare in New York State is unaffordable for many families, yet inadequately supports its workers. The State’s childcare costs are the third highest in the U.S., putting a strain on family budgets across the income distribution. The Bronx and Brooklyn have the costliest childcare as a share of family income of any county in the U.S.
Understanding Foundation Aid: How Public School Funding Works in New York State
Public school funding is allocated to local school districts based on formulas specified in state law, primarily through a formula known as Foundation Aid. This brief explains the State’s rules that govern public school funding.
Debunking Common Misconceptions about the Size of the State Budget
Under the fiscal year 2025 executive budget, inflation-adjusted state funding would fall for a third consecutive year. While State spending rose in response to Covid, it will return to its pre-Covid trend by fiscal year 2025.
The Medicaid MCO Tax Strategy
The legislative one-house budgets come out firmly for higher Medicaid spending, restoring most of the governor’s cuts and offering significant rate increases. But how will they pay for it? The Senate and Assembly budget memos propose to raise $4 billion a year through an obscure mechanism: A tax on Medicaid managed care plans, the private insurance companies which administer most of the state’s Medicaid program.
Consensus Economic and Revenue Forecast: Finding Quarters in the Couch Cushions
Over the past five budget cycles, the upward revisions to revenue established at the Economic and Revenue Consensus meeting has ranged from 0.6 percent to 1.9 percent of annual state operating funds. While these numbers may seem small in magnitude, the dollar amounts are significant when compared to current cost saving measures proposed in the fiscal year 2025 executive budget. Annualized revenue adjustments average $972 million over the past 6 budget cycles (excluding 2020) compared to a proposed $454 million in school aid cuts and $600 million in cuts to the homecare program CDPAP in this year’s executive budget.
New York State’s Reserves: A User’s Guide
New York State has generated significant budget surpluses in recent years as its economy recovered more quickly than expected from the Covid pandemic. Like most other U.S. states, New York saved a considerable portion of these surpluses in its fiscal reserve funds, building a buffer against fiscal stress during future economic downturns. With the Division of the Budget projecting an economic slowdown and depressed revenue in the years ahead, the appropriate use of the State’s fiscal reserves is now a subject of debate. This post will provide an overview on why fiscal reserves exist, and how they can be used to smooth out fluctuations in the economic cycle and maintain stable public services.
Mind the Gap: When are State Budget Gaps a Concern?
New York’s fiscal year 2024 Enacted Budget Financial Plan, released June 2023, projected budget shortfalls for fiscal years 2025 through 2027. While future budget gaps are a perennial feature of New York’s budget forecasts, the most recent projected gaps exceed those generally projected in times of greater economic stability, aligning instead with gaps projected during economic downturns. These projections must be interpreted, however, in light of an improving economic outlook as well as the inherent uncertainty of fiscal forecasting.
Low Expectations: Understanding the NYC Budget Gap
The Fiscal Policy Institute today released a new report, "Low Expectations: Understanding the NYC Budget Gap." Through an analysis of the past ten years of New York City outyear budget gaps, the report illustrates how the City uses conservative budget forecasting to protect against economic downturns, and outlines why lawmakers should not misinterpret outyear budget gaps as large impending deficits.