On Friday, June 13, New York State’s Division of the Budget released its financial plan for this year’s enacted State budget. The financial plan forecasts a national economic slowdown over the next four years as well as dramatic federal budget cuts. These forecasts indicate that the State will likely need to implement tax increases to manage the fallout from federal economic and fiscal policy.
With revenue higher than projections by 2.7 percent, and spending below projections by 1.7 percent, the State is on track to have a surplus in the current fiscal year.
The First Quarterly Update to the State’s financial plan indicates the State remains on strong fiscal footing, with modestly higher revenue than projected in the Enacted Budget financial plan and lower spending than expected. Measured as a share of total state personal income, State spending is set to fall, and is on par with its fiscal year 2016 level.
The fiscal year 2025 enacted budget totals $237 billion, an inflation-adjusted decline of 0.4 percent from fiscal year’s 2024 total budget. In non-inflation-adjusted terms (nominal dollars) this represents an increase from fiscal year 2024’s total budget of $231.6 billion.
November receipts 10.7% above latest projections and 9% above November 2022 receipts
October receipts 5.6% above latest projections and 7.5% above October 2022 receipts
As FPI projected earlier this month, Financial Plan update reduces projected FY 2025 budget gap by over 50 percent If current revenue trends continue, next fiscal year's projected budget gap would further narrow
The State Comptroller released its September Cash Report today, showing that year to date cash receipts came in over projections but under 2022 levels. Following the cash report release, FPI Executive Director Nathan Gusdorf released the following statement.
The State Comptroller released its August Cash Report Friday, showing that August tax receipts came in over projections and over August 2022 levels. Following the cash report release, Fiscal Policy Institute Executive Director Nathan Gusdorf released the following statements.
Three months of strong tax receipts confirm State economy remains robust & align with improving economic forecasts ALBANY, NY | August 16, 2023 — The State Comptroller released its July Cash Report today, showing that July tax receipts came in over projections and over July 2022 levels:July 2023 receipts: $7.75 billionJuly 2023 projections: $6.87 billionJuly 2022 receipts: $6.97 billionFollowing the cash report release, Fiscal Policy Institute Executive Director Nathan Gusdorf released the following statements: What the cash [...]
The New York State Comptroller's June cash basis report shows that tax receipts for the month of June have stabilized after a shortfall in April. The stable June receipts confirm that New York’s tax base and economy remain strong, and that shortfalls in April reflected weaker-than-expected capital gains in tax year 2022 rather than an imminent downturn.
New outyear budget gaps in the fiscal year 2024 Enacted Budget Financial Plan reflect heightened pessimism about the state’s economic trajectory by the State’s Division of Budget (DOB). While all economic projections are highly uncertain, the State is well-equipped to weather economic turbulence if these projections do materialize.
Following the release of the State Comptroller's May Cash Report yesterday, Fiscal Policy Institute Executive Director Nathan Gusdorf today released the following statements: "The New York State Comptroller's May cash basis report shows that total tax receipts for fiscal year 2024 to date are 3.4 percent over the projections in the Enacted Budget financial plan, with Personal Income Tax receipts to date exceeding such projections by 5.5 percent."
The New York State Comptroller this week released its November 2022 cash basis report, which documents recent trends in state spending and revenue.
In its Mid-Year Financial Plan Update, the New York State Division of the Budget (DOB) reported that tax revenues continue to exceed previous projections. Personal Income Tax (PIT) receipts continue to outperform expectations — bringing in $48.95 billion — nearly $2 billion more than projected in the enacted budget financial plan and $500 million more than projected in the first quarterly update to the financial plan. Through the first half of the fiscal year, PIT receipts exceeded enacted and first quarter projections by 17 percent and 8 percent, respectively.