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FPI Briefing on the Federal Budget Reconciliation Bill

The OBBBA spending cuts are concentrated in Medicaid and food stamps (SNAP), with devastating effects for New Yorkers. The bill will cut federal funding to the  New York State budget by approximately $10 billion annually and kick 1.5 million New Yorkers off their health insurance, more than doubling the statewide uninsured population. On top of the direct fiscal costs to New York State, the OBBBA will cut an additional $13 billion in funding to New York’s healthcare system.

New York Will Lose $15.4 Billion Per Year Under The “One Big Beautiful Bill Act”

The OBBBA spending cuts are concentrated in Medicaid and food stamps (SNAP), with devastating effects for New Yorkers. The bill will cost the New York State government $15.4 billion annually and kick 1.5 million New Yorkers off their health insurance, more than doubling the statewide uninsured population.

Budget Breakdown: Fiscal Year 2026 Enacted Budget

The Enacted Budget, while it contains few significant new policy initiatives, allows state spending to recover some of the lost ground from a decade of austerity policies in the 2010s. The most important policy measure in the budget is a long overdue increase in unemployment insurance benefits that will better prepare the State economy for a possible recession (discussed in detail below). The bad news is that the Enacted Budget contains serious fiscal errors, including permanent tax cuts and one-time payments that will cost $3 billion in fiscal year 2026 alone.

Has New York Already Entered Stagflation?

Stagflation is the deadly combination of low growth and high inflation. With the implementation of sweeping and high tariffs by the federal government, most economists and forecasters currently predict something resembling “stagflation” on the Unites States’ economic horizon. But New York may have already entered a period of stagflation: New York’s economy has recovered the jobs lost during the Covid-19 pandemic, but lags the economic growth seen in the rest of the country.

2025-05-05T22:52:51-04:00May 6th, 2025|Economic Trends & Policy, Featured on Home|
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