Census data released last month show that New York’s population growth has returned to pre-Covid patterns, characterized by both overall population growth and affordability pressure driving many working and middle-income New Yorkers to leave the state.
The Fiscal Policy Institute today released a new report in its state migration series, "Who Is Leaving New York State? Social and Labor Characteristics", which finds that affordability — and in particular housing and the cost of raising a family — are increasingly driving State population loss.
Under the fiscal year 2025 executive budget, inflation-adjusted state funding would fall for a third consecutive year. While State spending rose in response to Covid, it will return to its pre-Covid trend by fiscal year 2025.
Despite New York’s aggregate economic strength, the state faces real economic challenges. First, the Covid-19 pandemic induced a sustained decrease in total employment in the State relative to the rest of the country — in other words, while the rest of the United States has recovered and surpassed pre-pandemic employment, New York remains over 100,000 jobs below its pre-pandemic level as of the end of 2023. Second, poverty rates, which reached a 30-year low in 2020, have been climbing since the pandemic — a sign that New York faces real challenges in meeting the needs of its population. And third, New York’s income inequality remains amongst the highest in the country.
June Cash Receipts Continue to Stabilize Following April Volatility “In light of population loss, State should make deep investments in the services and programs that keep New Yorkers here” FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: December 19, 2023Media Contact: press@fiscalpolicy.org ALBANY, NY | In response to the U.S. Census Bureau’s release of the Vintage 2023 Population Estimates today, Fiscal Policy Institute Senior Policy Analyst Andrew Perry released the following statement: "The latest Census data should serve as a red flag [...]
A groundbreaking new report from the Fiscal Policy Institute, “Who Is Leaving New York State? Income Trends” reveals for the first time that the richest New Yorkers are far less likely to move out of New York than working and middle-class New Yorkers in normal, non-Covid years. While this pattern temporarily changed during Covid, when all households earning over $170,000 significantly increased their likelihood of moving out of state, migration trends reverted to normal in 2022.
New Census data revealed that New York State lost a net total of 244,100 people in 2022. The latest Census data, which details state-to-state migration patterns, confirms the Fiscal Policy Institute's prior findings: New Yorkers are primarily moving to neighboring states with a lower cost of living, and in particular, lower housing costs. Meanwhile, less than half of New Yorkers are leaving for low tax states. This data confirms State fiscal policy should focus on turning New York into a place where people can afford to live and raise families — from investing in universal childcare and high-quality public education to affordable housing and reliable public transit. Conversely, budget cuts or underfunding will only hinder New York's economic recovery. Increasingly unaffordable housing and childcare, combined with shrinking state services, will continue to drive both individuals and businesses out of our state.
Recent revisions to economic forecasts have significantly lowered expectations of a recession. This has positive implications for the State’s fiscal outlook, as improved economic performance should translate into higher tax receipts.
New York State has been reported to be one of the states most at risk of incurring a shortage of healthcare workers over the next decade. With a quickly growing population of adults over the age of 65 (“older adults”) and a movement towards “aging in place,” the demand for home care workers will rise dramatically over the next decade.
March 8, 2023 Most businesses do not pay the corporate tax. Only corporations pay the corporate tax, and approximately 95% of businesses are not corporations. [1] Most businesses are partnerships, LLCs, S-corporations, or sole proprietorships, none of which pay the corporate tax. The biggest corporations pay most of the tax. More than 80% of corporations in New York pay less than $1,000 in tax. [2] Around 75% of all New York corporate tax revenue comes from the 500 most [...]
The typical family that moves out of New York State saves 15 times more from lower housing costs than they do from lower taxes. Of the top twenty largest county-to-county moves out of New York State, annual mortgage costs are on average $18,300, or 34 percent, lower outside New York.
In its Mid-Year Financial Plan Update, the New York State Division of the Budget (DOB) reported that tax revenues continue to exceed previous projections. Personal Income Tax (PIT) receipts continue to outperform expectations — bringing in $48.95 billion — nearly $2 billion more than projected in the enacted budget financial plan and $500 million more than projected in the first quarterly update to the financial plan. Through the first half of the fiscal year, PIT receipts exceeded enacted and first quarter projections by 17 percent and 8 percent, respectively.
Nathan Gusdorf, Executive Director of the Fiscal Policy Institute, today released the following statement: “Recent data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics today reveal New York State added 456,000 jobs from June 2021 to June 2022, which represents a 5.1% annual increase — making New York the fifth fastest growing job market in the United States."
October 7, 2021 (updated from October 4). The groundbreaking Excluded Worker Fund, which gives aid to people who are excluded from unemployment insurance benefits, has crossed the $1 billion mark, and stands at $1,148,078,400 as of October 4. That’s a huge benefit to workers - nearly all of them undocumented - in our state, and is helping people and local economies in all regions. Equally impressive: 99 percent of those who have been approved get $15,600, the higher of two benefit levels. This is designed to [...]
October 4, 2021. New York State’s historic Excluded Worker Fund has been helping undocumented immigrants and others who were left out of unemployment compensation during the pandemic. According to data provided by the New York State Department of Labor last week, the fund - as predicted - is having an important positive impact on all regions of the state. The most important benefit of the Excluded Worker Fund is helping workers and their families, but the infusion of money into the community helps local economies [...]
