NEW YORK, NY | The Fiscal Policy Institute and the Immigration Research Initiative today co-released a report that examines the negative economic and fiscal costs of mass deportation on New York State.

The incoming Trump Administration is promising an unprecedented intensity of enforcement actions aimed at removing immigrants from New York communities, workplaces, and families. In many cases this may result in deportations, in many others it may mean being held indefinitely in detention centers. The administration is also promising to radically reduce the number of new immigrants allowed into the country, and to strip some immigrants of status they currently hold.

The immigrants most vulnerable are those who are undocumented. But the impact does not end there. People who have temporary visas may see them terminated or unrenewed. People with temporary protected status, asylum seekers, DACA recipients, and many others are also in a precarious position.

There are far-reaching social and humanitarian implications of this type of enforcement regime. But there is also an economic risk that can be quantified.

Key Findings:

• There are 4.5 million immigrants in New York State, including 1.8 million who are non-citizens, and among those an estimated 670,000 who are undocumented.
• In 2022, people who are undocumented paid an estimated $3.1 billion in state and local taxes.
• New York’s economy depends on immigrants, including those without documentation. Deportation of these workers would dramatically decrease affordability and availability of food, homes, and care—all basic needs for New Yorkers.
• Sectors that are particularly likely to see negative consequences include:
  • Restaurants. There are an estimated 7,000 chefs, 17,000 cooks, 9,100 food prep workers, and 9,200 waiters who are undocumented in New York State.
  • Care workers. There are 20,900 maids and housekeepers, 16,800 home health aides, 7,000 child care workers, and 6,500 personal care aides who are undocumented in New York.
  • Construction. There are 29,500 construction laborers, 12,800 carpenters, and 6,200 painters who are undocumented in New York.
  • Farming. Over half of all crop workers in the United States are immigrants, and the vast majority of the immigrants are either undocumented or seasonal H-2A workers.
• Negative impact on upstate cities: Stopping the new flow of refugees to upstate cities will have a direct impact on population rebound in upstate cities, as well as a strong negative impact on the refugee resettlement agencies that are important anchor institutions in these cities.

“Immigrants are a vital part of New York, so it is no surprise to see the drastic impact the proposed Trump Administration policies will have on our state,” said David Dyssegaard Kallick, director of Immigration Research Initiative. “Heartbreaking stories are already emerging of immigrants being separated from their families and their communities, and those separations are going to have negative consequences for all of us.”

“State and City leadership must oppose the implementation of deportation policies that could have a devastating impact on New York’s immigrant communities and its economy,” said Nathan Gusdorf, director of the Fiscal Policy Institute. “In addition to their human cost, these policies could remove hundreds of thousands of immigrants from the workforce, causing New Yorkers to lose access to essential services including child care and home care, and pushing up the cost of construction during a historic housing shortage.”