PolitiFact: Cost estimates of ending worker program vary widely

November 25, 2017. This Politifact article is assessing the claim by U.S. Rep. Joaquin Castro. He tweeted that the United States would lose $164 billion in GDP over a decade if they terminated Temporary Protective Status (TPS). TPS is a status for immigrants from countries experiencing armed conflict, natural disasters, epidemics and other temporary conditions preventing the safe return of their citizens. This status provides immigrants with TPS work authorization and protection from deportation, but does not include a pathway to citizenship. The Trump administration ended the TPS status of Nicaragua and Honduras’s status is still under consideration. This article includes statements that argue that the termination of TPS would effect certain industries in the workforce negatively. Politifact determined that Rep. Joaquin Castro cited the loss of GDP accurately.

U.S. Rep. Joaquin Castro, D-San Antonio, claimed the U.S. economy would be negatively impacted if the Trump administration eliminated an immigration protection mostly benefiting Central Americans.

David Dyssegaard Kallick, immigration research director at the Fiscal Policy Institute, said it is sound to look at industry output when thinking about GDP loss.

“GDP, after all, is about measuring total output in the economy,” he said.

Our ruling:

Castro tweeted, “Ending #TPS and deporting legal workers would cost the United States ~$164 billion in GDP over a decade.”

Castro accurately cited GDP loss reported by the left-leaning Center for American Progress. But at least one other report pegged a GDP loss that’s more than three times smaller, $45.2 billion. The report Castro used had calculated lost earnings and impact on industries, while the other report only looked at lost wages.

Here is the link to Politifact.

 

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