Recent Work
Halfway Into Fiscal Year, Tax Receipts Remain Stable — Budget Gaps Likely to Shrink
The State Comptroller released its September Cash Report today, showing that year to date cash receipts came in over projections but under 2022 levels. Following the cash report release, FPI Executive Director Nathan Gusdorf released the following statement.
FPI Statement in Response to State Spending Freeze Directive
In response to the State Division of the Budget directive to State agencies ordering a spending freeze at current levels next year, Fiscal Policy Institute Executive Director Nathan Gusdorf released the following statement.
New York State’s Reserves: A User’s Guide
New York State has generated significant budget surpluses in recent years as its economy recovered more quickly than expected from the Covid pandemic. Like most other U.S. states, New York saved a considerable portion of these surpluses in its fiscal reserve funds, building a buffer against fiscal stress during future economic downturns. With the Division of the Budget projecting an economic slowdown and depressed revenue in the years ahead, the appropriate use of the State’s fiscal reserves is now a subject of debate. This post will provide an overview on why fiscal reserves exist, and how they can be used to smooth out fluctuations in the economic cycle and maintain stable public services.
FPI: August State Cash Receipts Remain Steady for Fourth Straight Month
The State Comptroller released its August Cash Report Friday, showing that August tax receipts came in over projections and over August 2022 levels. Following the cash report release, Fiscal Policy Institute Executive Director Nathan Gusdorf released the following statements.
Breaking Down the Fiscal Impact of City Aid to Migrants
In August 2023, the City updated its cost estimates for providing shelter and support to asylum seekers, adding $2.33 billion in expected City costs in the current fiscal year (FY24) and $4.1 billion in the next fiscal year (FY25). The 15% PEG announced in September 2023 would result in a $9.6 billion cut in the current fiscal year (FY24) and a $9.7 billion cut in the next fiscal year (FY25).
Mind the Gap: When are State Budget Gaps a Concern?
New York’s fiscal year 2024 Enacted Budget Financial Plan, released June 2023, projected budget shortfalls for fiscal years 2025 through 2027. While future budget gaps are a perennial feature of New York’s budget forecasts, the most recent projected gaps exceed those generally projected in times of greater economic stability, aligning instead with gaps projected during economic downturns. These projections must be interpreted, however, in light of an improving economic outlook as well as the inherent uncertainty of fiscal forecasting.
FPI: Recent Investment Firm Relocations Unlikely to Result in State Tax Loss
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: August 23, 2023 Media Contact: press@fiscalpolicy.org FPI: Recent Investment Firm Relocations Unlikely to Result in State Tax Loss “These business decisions are unlikely to have a noticeable effect on the state’s tax revenues” ALBANY, NY — Fiscal Policy Institute Executive Director Nathan Gusdorf today released the following statement: “A recent article stated that New York State lost ‘$1 trillion in assets’ due to a number of asset management firms moving their headquarters out of state. While one might interpret this to mean that New York State lost $1 [...]
July Cash Receipts Remain Steady for Third Straight Month
Three months of strong tax receipts confirm State economy remains robust & align with improving economic forecasts ALBANY, NY | August 16, 2023 — The State Comptroller released its July Cash Report today, showing that July tax receipts came in over projections and over July 2022 levels:July 2023 receipts: $7.75 billionJuly 2023 projections: $6.87 billionJuly 2022 receipts: $6.97 billionFollowing the cash report release, Fiscal Policy Institute Executive Director Nathan Gusdorf released the following statements: What the cash report says: "The New York State Comptroller's July cash basis report shows that tax receipts [...]
State Economic Update: Recession Unlikely, Tax Receipts Stable
Recent revisions to economic forecasts have significantly lowered expectations of a recession. This has positive implications for the State’s fiscal outlook, as improved economic performance should translate into higher tax receipts.
June Cash Receipts Continue to Stabilize Following April Volatility
The New York State Comptroller's June cash basis report shows that tax receipts for the month of June have stabilized after a shortfall in April. The stable June receipts confirm that New York’s tax base and economy remain strong, and that shortfalls in April reflected weaker-than-expected capital gains in tax year 2022 rather than an imminent downturn.
Fiscal Year 2024 Enacted Budget Financial Plan Analysis
New outyear budget gaps in the fiscal year 2024 Enacted Budget Financial Plan reflect heightened pessimism about the state’s economic trajectory by the State’s Division of Budget (DOB). While all economic projections are highly uncertain, the State is well-equipped to weather economic turbulence if these projections do materialize.
May Cash Receipts Begin to Stabilize Following April Volatility
Following the release of the State Comptroller's May Cash Report yesterday, Fiscal Policy Institute Executive Director Nathan Gusdorf today released the following statements: "The New York State Comptroller's May cash basis report shows that total tax receipts for fiscal year 2024 to date are 3.4 percent over the projections in the Enacted Budget financial plan, with Personal Income Tax receipts to date exceeding such projections by 5.5 percent."
Low Expectations: Understanding the NYC Budget Gap
The Fiscal Policy Institute today released a new report, "Low Expectations: Understanding the NYC Budget Gap." Through an analysis of the past ten years of New York City outyear budget gaps, the report illustrates how the City uses conservative budget forecasting to protect against economic downturns, and outlines why lawmakers should not misinterpret outyear budget gaps as large impending deficits.
Exempting Suburbs from Payroll Mobility Tax Would Cost MTA $200 Million
As the legislature currently contemplates a Payroll Mobility Tax (PMT) increase from 0.34 percent to 0.5 percent to fund the MTA, the Fiscal Policy Institute today released a new report, Who Should Pay the Payroll Mobility Tax? The Case Against Excluding Suburban Counties.
Overview of Fiscal Year 2024 Executive vs Legislative Budget Proposals
The fiscal year 2024 Executive Budget limits spending growth to 2.0 percent, with new spending concentrated in Medicaid and School Aid. In contrast, the Assembly proposes budget growth of 5.9 percent, reflecting additional investments in the MTA, SUNY and CUNY, and assistance for low-income renters, paid for through increased taxes on multimillionaires and corporations.