Recent Work
Update: FY25 State Budget Gap Reflects Stable Fiscal Condition, Not Crisis
January 9, 2024 Toplines The November financial plan made significant revisions to the FY25 budget gap — shrinking the gap from $9.1 billion to $4.3 billion, resulting in more routine gaps. The current FY25 budget gap of $4.3 billion is a moderate, not extreme, budget gap. Moderate outyear budget gaps are generally the result of conservative revenue estimates intended to ensure fiscal stability. Conservative budget forecasting is a sound fiscal practice that protects against economic downturns — not a rationale for major policy interventions such as significant cuts or spending freezes. FY25 Budget Gap [...]
Latest Census Data, Combined with FPI Analysis, Reveal New York Losing Working and Middle Class
The latest Census data should serve as a red flag for policy makers: New York is losing more residents than any other state in the nation.
November State Receipts Exceed Projections for Sixth Month Straight
November receipts 10.7% above latest projections and 9% above November 2022 receipts
Testimony on Mayor’s November Financial Plan
December 11, 2023 Submitted to the New York City Council Committee on Finance Good morning — I am Andrew Perry, Senior Policy Analyst at the Fiscal Policy Institute, a nonpartisan research organization committed to improving public policy to better the economic and social conditions of all New Yorkers. Overview: New York City faces real fiscal strain in the current fiscal year and next year. However, projected gaps are the result of an unexpected and temporary fiscal shock – the costs of services to asylum seekers – rather than a permanent structural imbalance. A temporary [...]
Who is Leaving New York State? Part I: Income Trends
A groundbreaking new report from the Fiscal Policy Institute, “Who Is Leaving New York State? Income Trends” reveals for the first time that the richest New Yorkers are far less likely to move out of New York than working and middle-class New Yorkers in normal, non-Covid years. While this pattern temporarily changed during Covid, when all households earning over $170,000 significantly increased their likelihood of moving out of state, migration trends reverted to normal in 2022.
October Cash Receipts Remain Stable More Than Halfway Through Fiscal Year
October receipts 5.6% above latest projections and 7.5% above October 2022 receipts
State Fiscal Outlook Improves in Mid-Year Update to Financial Plan
As FPI projected earlier this month, Financial Plan update reduces projected FY 2025 budget gap by over 50 percent If current revenue trends continue, next fiscal year's projected budget gap would further narrow
Latest Census Data Confirms New York Losing Residents to Neighboring States with Lower Housing Costs
New Census data revealed that New York State lost a net total of 244,100 people in 2022. The latest Census data, which details state-to-state migration patterns, confirms the Fiscal Policy Institute's prior findings: New Yorkers are primarily moving to neighboring states with a lower cost of living, and in particular, lower housing costs. Meanwhile, less than half of New Yorkers are leaving for low tax states. This data confirms State fiscal policy should focus on turning New York into a place where people can afford to live and raise families — from investing in universal childcare and high-quality public education to affordable housing and reliable public transit. Conversely, budget cuts or underfunding will only hinder New York's economic recovery. Increasingly unaffordable housing and childcare, combined with shrinking state services, will continue to drive both individuals and businesses out of our state.
Halfway Into Fiscal Year, Tax Receipts Remain Stable — Budget Gaps Likely to Shrink
The State Comptroller released its September Cash Report today, showing that year to date cash receipts came in over projections but under 2022 levels. Following the cash report release, FPI Executive Director Nathan Gusdorf released the following statement.
FPI Statement in Response to State Spending Freeze Directive
In response to the State Division of the Budget directive to State agencies ordering a spending freeze at current levels next year, Fiscal Policy Institute Executive Director Nathan Gusdorf released the following statement.
New York State’s Reserves: A User’s Guide
New York State has generated significant budget surpluses in recent years as its economy recovered more quickly than expected from the Covid pandemic. Like most other U.S. states, New York saved a considerable portion of these surpluses in its fiscal reserve funds, building a buffer against fiscal stress during future economic downturns. With the Division of the Budget projecting an economic slowdown and depressed revenue in the years ahead, the appropriate use of the State’s fiscal reserves is now a subject of debate. This post will provide an overview on why fiscal reserves exist, and how they can be used to smooth out fluctuations in the economic cycle and maintain stable public services.
FPI: August State Cash Receipts Remain Steady for Fourth Straight Month
The State Comptroller released its August Cash Report Friday, showing that August tax receipts came in over projections and over August 2022 levels. Following the cash report release, Fiscal Policy Institute Executive Director Nathan Gusdorf released the following statements.
Breaking Down the Fiscal Impact of City Aid to Migrants
In August 2023, the City updated its cost estimates for providing shelter and support to asylum seekers, adding $2.33 billion in expected City costs in the current fiscal year (FY24) and $4.1 billion in the next fiscal year (FY25). The 15% PEG announced in September 2023 would result in a $9.6 billion cut in the current fiscal year (FY24) and a $9.7 billion cut in the next fiscal year (FY25).
Mind the Gap: When are State Budget Gaps a Concern?
New York’s fiscal year 2024 Enacted Budget Financial Plan, released June 2023, projected budget shortfalls for fiscal years 2025 through 2027. While future budget gaps are a perennial feature of New York’s budget forecasts, the most recent projected gaps exceed those generally projected in times of greater economic stability, aligning instead with gaps projected during economic downturns. These projections must be interpreted, however, in light of an improving economic outlook as well as the inherent uncertainty of fiscal forecasting.
FPI: Recent Investment Firm Relocations Unlikely to Result in State Tax Loss
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: August 23, 2023 Media Contact: press@fiscalpolicy.org FPI: Recent Investment Firm Relocations Unlikely to Result in State Tax Loss “These business decisions are unlikely to have a noticeable effect on the state’s tax revenues” ALBANY, NY — Fiscal Policy Institute Executive Director Nathan Gusdorf today released the following statement: “A recent article stated that New York State lost ‘$1 trillion in assets’ due to a number of asset management firms moving their headquarters out of state. While one might interpret this to mean that New York State lost $1 [...]