Tax & Budget

Fiscal Year 2025 Revenue Likely to Exceed State Projections by At Least $4 Billion

The DOB’s assumed growth rates for State revenue are very low by historical standards and are out of sync with most forecasts of U.S. economic growth over coming years. FPI expects State revenue growth in FY25 will likely exceed current forecasts by at least $4 billion.

What to Look for in the One House Budgets

The New York State Senate and Assembly will soon release their proposals for the fiscal year 2025 budget. Following last week’s revenue consensus, the legislature will be able to propose $1.3 billion more in spending than the executive budget. This additional revenue will allow the legislature to restore many of the budget cuts proposed by the executive budget, especially to school aid and home care. The legislature can, however, go beyond restoring the proposed cuts and put forward deeper investments in public services that address New York’s affordability crisis. These investments will require raising additional revenue.

Tax Policy Brief: Fiscal Stability and Progressivity in the Personal Income Tax

New York State often faces calls for higher tax revenue, whether due to concerns over revenue shortfalls or a desire to increase public spending. This brief assesses the soundness of raising revenue through the Personal Income Tax, examining the fiscal stability of such revenue, fundamental fairness considerations, and responses to common arguments against raising the state income tax.

2024-03-28T20:58:23-04:00March 8th, 2024|Must Read, Policy & Research, Tax & Budget, Tax Policy|

Consensus Economic and Revenue Forecast: Finding Quarters in the Couch Cushions

Over the past five budget cycles, the upward revisions to revenue established at the Economic and Revenue Consensus meeting has ranged from 0.6 percent to 1.9 percent of annual state operating funds. While these numbers may seem small in magnitude, the dollar amounts are significant when compared to current cost saving measures proposed in the fiscal year 2025 executive budget. Annualized revenue adjustments average $972 million over the past 6 budget cycles (excluding 2020) compared to a proposed $454 million in school aid cuts and $600 million in cuts to the homecare program CDPAP in this year’s executive budget.

FPI: Mayor’s Continued Budget Cuts Are Unwarranted and Fiscally Irresponsible

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: January 16, 2024 Media Contact: June Cash Receipts Continue to Stabilize Following April Volatility "Improving tax receipts and new State aid, combined with lower asylum seeker costs and the customary use of annual reserves, are more than sufficient to balance next year’s budget" ALBANY, NY | January 16, 2024 — In response to the New York City Preliminary Budget for Fiscal Year 2025, Fiscal Policy Institute Director Nathan Gusdorf released [...]

FPI: Modest Budget Lacks Deep Investments Needed to Reverse Affordability Crisis & Stem Population Loss

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: January 16, 2024 Media Contact: June Cash Receipts Continue to Stabilize Following April Volatility "Given recent inflation and economic growth, state spending is shrinking slightly relative to the size of the overall state economy" ALBANY, NY | In response to the New York State Executive Budget for Fiscal Year 2025, Fiscal Policy Institute Director Nathan Gusdorf released the following statement: “After months of overly pessimistic revenue projections, the Executive Budget [...]

2024-01-16T13:20:50-05:00January 16th, 2024|FPI in the News, Press Releases, State Budget|

New: Expiring Tax Rates to Drive Down Expected Fiscal Year 2028 Revenue

By Andrew Perry, Senior Policy Analyst January 2024 Approximately $2.4 Billion of FY28 budget gap will be due to the Personal Income Tax and Corporate Franchise Tax surcharge expirations. In the fiscal year 2022 budget, New York enacted temporary increases to the personal income tax (PIT) and corporate franchise tax (CFT) rates. PIT rates were raised for tax filers with more than $1 million in annual income, and new brackets were created for filers with incomes over $5 million [...]

2024-01-16T08:22:12-05:00January 16th, 2024|Fact Sheets, Featured on Home, Must Read, State Budget|

FPI on State of the State: NY’s Long-term Economic Competitiveness Depends on Deepening Investments that Sustain Workforce

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: January 9, 2024 Media Contact: June Cash Receipts Continue to Stabilize Following April Volatility New York’s current fiscal indicators are stable & show State could significantly increase public investment Current $4.3 billion FY25 budget gap falls within routine range that resolve without major policy intervention ALBANY, NY | In response to Governor Hochul's State of the State, Fiscal Policy Institute Director Nathan Gusdorf released the following [...]

2024-01-09T14:20:27-05:00January 9th, 2024|Press Releases, State Budget|

Update: FY25 State Budget Gap Reflects Stable Fiscal Condition, Not Crisis

January 9, 2024 Toplines The November financial plan made significant revisions to the FY25 budget gap — shrinking the gap from $9.1 billion to $4.3 billion, resulting in more routine gaps. The current FY25 budget gap of $4.3 billion is a moderate, not extreme, budget gap. Moderate outyear budget gaps are generally the result of conservative revenue estimates intended to ensure fiscal stability. Conservative budget forecasting is a sound fiscal practice that protects against economic downturns — not a [...]

2024-04-18T13:55:43-04:00January 9th, 2024|Fact Sheets, State Budget, Tax & Budget|

November State Receipts Exceed Projections for Sixth Month Straight

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: December 19, 2023 Media Contact: June Cash Receipts Continue to Stabilize Following April Volatility November receipts 10.7% above latest projections and 9% above November 2022 receipts ALBANY, NY | The State Comptroller released its November Cash Report Friday, showing that November receipts came in over projections and over November 2022 receipts: November 2023 receipts: $7.59 billion November 2023 projections: Enacted (June): $7.06 billion Mid-Year Update (October): $6.86 billion November 2022 receipts: [...]

2023-12-19T09:26:12-05:00December 19th, 2023|Financial Plans & Cash Reports, Press Releases|

Testimony on Mayor’s November Financial Plan

December 11, 2023 Submitted to the New York City Council Committee on Finance Good morning — I am Andrew Perry, Senior Policy Analyst at the Fiscal Policy Institute, a nonpartisan research organization committed to improving public policy to better the economic and social conditions of all New Yorkers. Overview: New York City faces real fiscal strain in the current fiscal year and next year. However, projected gaps are the result of an unexpected and temporary fiscal shock – the [...]

2023-12-11T07:49:13-05:00December 11th, 2023|City Budget, Reports, Briefs and Presentations|

High Earners Move Out Of New York Less Often Than Working & Middle Class And Do Not Move In Response To Tax Hikes

A groundbreaking new report from the Fiscal Policy Institute, “Who Is Leaving New York State? Income Trends” reveals for the first time that the richest New Yorkers are far less likely to move out of New York than working and middle-class New Yorkers in normal, non-Covid years. While this pattern temporarily changed during Covid, when all households earning over $170,000 significantly increased their likelihood of moving out of state, migration trends reverted to normal in 2022.

2024-04-08T13:45:21-04:00December 5th, 2023|Migration, Must Read, Press Releases, State Budget, Tax Policy|

October Cash Receipts Remain Stable More Than Halfway Through Fiscal Year

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: November 16, 2023 Media Contact: June Cash Receipts Continue to Stabilize Following April Volatility October receipts 5.6% above latest projections and 7.5% above October 2022 receipts ALBANY, NY | November 16, 2023 — The State Comptroller released its October Cash Report today, showing that October receipts came in over projections and over October 2022 receipts. October 2023 receipts: $5.85 billion October 2023 projections: Enacted: $5.43 billion Mid-year: $5.54 billion October [...]

State Fiscal Outlook Improves in Mid-Year Update to Financial Plan

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: October 31, 2023 Media Contact: June Cash Receipts Continue to Stabilize Following April Volatility As FPI projected earlier this month, Financial Plan update reduces projected FY 2025 budget gap by over 50 percent If current revenue trends continue, next fiscal year's projected budget gap would further narrow ALBANY, NY | October 31, 2023 — Following the release of the Mid-Year Update to the Fiscal Year 2024 Financial Plan this week, [...]

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